Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 10, 2018

Ryan April 10th, 2018

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday
April 9, 2018	Trade Balance s.a. (Feb)	Germany
April 9, 2018	Housing Starts s.a (Mar)	CAD
April 9, 2018	Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey	CAD
April 9, 2018	BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (Mar)	UK
April 10, 2018	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (Mar)	USA
April 11, 2018	Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting	EMU
April 11, 2018	Industrial/Manufacturing production (Feb)	UK
April 11, 2018	Consumer Price Index	USA
April 11, 2018	Monthly Budget Statement (Mar)	USA
April 12, 2018	BOE Credit Conditions Survey	UK
April 12, 2018	ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts	EMU
April 12, 2018	Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims (April 30)	USA
April 13, 2018	Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Mar)	Germany
April 13, 2018	Fed’s Bullard speech	USA
April 13, 2018	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)	USA
April 13, 2018	Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count	USA

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7756 and closed at 0.7824 – appreciating by 0.88% with better than expected jobs in March and a NAFTA agreement being close to being completed.

With Canada’s job market outcome better than expected it brought the CAD recovery from a 1-month low. With the housing market data coming up this week will show more insight on how these new jobs have affected the economy. Also with the Bank of Canada Outlook Survey coming out we will see if a rate hike is more likely in the future.

The NAFTA deal is still a big concern with all the parties involved. With Trump’s stance on international trade the idea of finally making a NAFTA agreement might seem possible as it looks like his power play is now moving overseas to China. As more and more of these trade war talks arise it seems more likely that Trumps actions are more of a political play and not an economical one.

1. Housing Stars s.a (Mar): Monday, April 9^th

2. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey: Monday, April 9^th

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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4008 and closed at 1.4090 – appreciating by 0.59% with manufacturing PMI and BOE looking to raise rate soon.

The GBP is getting a lift due to manufacturing numbers looking promising to the economy. Also after the US Non-Farm Payroll report being lower than expected brought a good bump for the GBP. Expected NFP report was 193k and actual was 103k.

With trade war talk with China and the US coming to fruition the GBP has been able to outperform the US. While Brexit talk has becoming more and more stable and, an agreement should be officially signed soon, the GBP has seen to increase against the USD.

1. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (Mar): Monday, April 9^th

2. Industrial/Manufacturing production (Feb): Wednesday, April 11^th

3. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Thursday, April 12^th

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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2321 and closed at 1.2287 – depreciating by 0.28% due to a Euro-zone slowdown.

With lower than expected numbers coming out of Germany regarding factory orders, industrial output, and retail sales has put a sign of a slowdown coming to the euro-zone. With signs of a recession emerging all eyes will be on the ECB meeting and talks coming from the BOE.

Trade wars with US and China are still on the horizon and impacting the USD negatively and making its way to impacting the CNY. Hopefully President Trump doesn’t make any more negative comments on twitter or social media to provoke anymore trade war talk and any tension can be solved with political talk and not an economic war.

1. Trade Balance (Feb, Germany): Monday, April 9^th

2. Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting (EMU): Wednesday, April 11^th

3. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EMU): Thursday, April 12^th

4. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Mar, Germany): Friday, April 13^th

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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

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