Currency Market Trend Analysis: March 27, 2018

Ryan March 27th, 2018

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday
March 26, 2018	Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb)	USA
March 26, 2018	Fed’s William Dudley speech	USA
March 26, 2018	FOMC Member Mester speech	USA
March 27, 2018	Business Climate (Mar)	EMU
March 27, 2018	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (Jan)	USA
March 27, 2018	FOMC Member Bostic speech	USA
March 28, 2018	Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Apr)	Germany
March 28, 2018	Gross Domestic Product	CAD/UK
March 28, 2018	Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Q4)	USA
March 29, 2018	Unemployment Change (Mar)	Germany
March 29, 2018	Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Mar)	Germany
March 29, 2018	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure	USA
March 29, 2018	Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Mar)	USA
March 29, 2018	FOMC Member Harker Speech	USA
March 30, 2018	Gfk Consumer Confidence (Mar)	UK
March 30, 2018	Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count	USA

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7637 and closed at 0.7759 – appreciating by 1.60% with the result of the Consumer Price Index showing a positive outlook.

With CPI increasing by 0.6% along with inflation rates climb to 2.2% the central bank may be sticking to its stance on letting the market adjust naturally before getting involved. Now that Trump has officially exempted Canada from the steel and aluminum tariffs, and has his eye out for China, a NAFTA deal can finally be done.

The price of black gold and the weakened US dollar has helped CAD appreciate as well. With the barrel of oil price topping off at $65 this is great news for the CAD.

Even though all these positive outcomes are great for the CAD they are temporary. We will see how the oil prices and Trump trade war plays out over the next week. Along with the release of GDP.

1. Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday, March 28^th

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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.3942 and closed at 1.4131 – appreciating by 1.36% with good news coming out of the UK and EU.

With a transition period agreement coming out of the EU and UK meeting last week this has brought a positive outlook for the GBP. Trade negotiations have not come up during Brexit talks. Once these negotiations occur then the outcome of the GBP will be more known on how it will stand next to USD.

There is a small group that is still trying meeting in secret to prevent Brexit from occurring. This group has remained a secret to ensure that they won’t be disrupted by the media. This group is still giving hope to the anti-Brexit supporters. We will keep an eye out for them and see if they come up with enough support to undo Brexit.

1. Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday, March 28^th

2. Gfk Consumer Confidence (Mar): Friday, March 30^th

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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2296 and closed at 1.2358 – appreciating by 0.50% due to trade war and government shutdown talks.

Last week was another week of a possible government shutdown for the US if a budget was not signed off. Luckily late on Friday a spending budget was signed and then trade war against China was starting to occur. With all these threats occurring this has caused the USD to weaken. With strong news coming out of the EU of increasing GDP, and positive Brexit talks, this has helped the EUR gain against the USD.

1. Business Climate (Mar, EMU): Tuesday, March 27^th

2. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (April, Germany): Wednesday, March 28^th

3. Unemployment Change (Mar, Germany): Thursday, March 29^th

4. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Mar, EMU): Thursday, March 29^th

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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

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