• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • SOLUTIONS
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • INDUSTRIES
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

USDCAD bid ahead of Canadian Retail Sales report. Slew of Federal Reserve member speeches to follow.

Ryan February 22nd, 2019
USDCAD bid ahead of Canadian Retail Sales report.  Slew of Federal Reserve member speeches to follow.

 

Summary

  • USDCAD: Dollar/CAD is hugging a trend-line level in the 1.3210s this morning as traders await the latest read on Retail Sales out of Canada.  Market participants are expecting a -0.3% read for December, after a decline in November of -0.9%.  Yesterday’s market bounce, on the back of a broad “risk-off” tone to US equities, did much to repair the near term technicals for USDCAD.  Comments from Bank of Canada governor about the upward path of interest rates being “uncertain” certainly helped in our opinion.  Expect the market to challenge the 1.3250s to the upside should we get weak Retail Sales numbers this morning, and conversely expect yesterday’s chart support of 1.3160-70 to be test should the numbers beat expectations.  We think a strong move above the 1.3250s will once again put the January/February downtrend at risk of ending.  Over 1.5blnUSD in options expire between 1.3180 and 1.3215 this morning at 10amET, which could keep the price action glued to current levels until then.

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar continues to chop in an expanding range, as the gap between trend-line support and resistance slowly increases.  See hourly EURUSD chart.  Today’s North American calendar will be full of Fed-speak, so get ready to watch your newswire.

    8:15am – Bostic

    10:15am – Williams & Daly

    12:00pm – Clarida

    12:30pm – Potter

    1:30pm – Quarles, Bullard & Harker

    The economic data out of Europe this morning was on the weak side yet again.  While the revision to Germany’s Q4 GDP read came in a 0% as expected, Germany’s IFO survey for February missed estimates (coming in at 103.4 vs 103.9).  USDCNH is trading steady this morning after the Australian coal-ban headlines rescued the market from the depths below 6.70.  We think EURUSD may leak lower and search for buyers here.  Over 1.6blnEUR in options expire at the 1.1300 strike this morning.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling is pulling back this morning as recent fund longs appear to be liquidating ahead of a weekend with plenty of negative Brexit headline risk.  The Tory party resignations are piling up.  More here.  Brexit debate will resume next week in Parliament, before which Theresa May is expected to make another speech (Feb 26th).  We think GBPUSD could slip all the way back to chart support in the 1.2940-50s should the 1.3020s not be regained in short order. 

  • AUDUSD: Aussie traders are licking their wounds this morning after yesterday’s massive bearish reversal pattern.  The Australian PM was on the wires overnight downplaying the thought that relations with China are souring.  RBA Governor Lowe also made some headlines, and while he reiterated the central bank’s new “broadly balanced” monetary policy stance for the near futures, he hinted at a rate hike for next year as “may be appropriate” (which seemed to calm the market a little bit).  AUDUSD now sits above chart support in the 0.7080s, but below resistance in the 0.7110-20s.

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen is enjoying another bid this morning as chart support in the 110.60s held firm yet again in overnight trade.  A nice bid to the S&P futures this morning is helping the cause, as stocks look set to claw back half of yesterday’s losses this morning.  Equity traders appear to be hopeful that Trump will extend the March 1st tariff deadline when he meets with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He this afternoon.  We think USDJPY still has legs to proceed higher into the 111s.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.

 

Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

April Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

March Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

March S&P Daily Chart

Charts: TWS Workspace


About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

 

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations, and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 80 foreign currencies, gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler’s cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI’s innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com

 

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

 

 

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.

 

Archive