Currency Market Trend Analysis: March 13, 2018

Ryan March 13th, 2018

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday
March 12, 2018	Federal Budget Announcement	USA
March 12, 2018	Eurogroup Meeting	EUR
March 12, 2018	Manufacturing Production	EUR
March 13, 2018	Consumer Price Index	USA
March 13, 2018	Inflation Rate MoM	EUR
March 13, 2018	Spring Budget	BRT
March 15, 2018	Weekly Jobless Claims	USA
March 15, 2018	Unemployment Rate	EUR

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7765 and closed at 0.7804 – increasing by 0.5% even with the tariff threat that U.S. President Trump has been hovering over everyone’s head.

Positive oil prices have extended some support to the Loonie and cap gains. Even with NAFTA agreements President Trump has, for the time being, exempted Canada and Mexico from steel and aluminum tariffs.

On other trade news, the future trading partnership with the U.K. Morneau has stated that “to the extent that we can get a better arrangement with the U.K. in the future, that’s positive.” There have been indications that after the U.K. quits the European Union their partnership could go further in areas like financial services.

1. Federal Budget Announcement: Monday, March 12^th

2. Consumer Price Index: Tuesday, March 13^th

3. Weekly Job Claims: Thursday, March 15^th

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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.3801 and closed at 1.3851 – increasing by 0.40% with the Spring Budget coming.

The budget meeting is going to include a fresh forecast on GDP growth and UK government borrowing, adding also Brexit’s impact on the economy. This, along with the release of US inflation, may result in some bumpy action around the GPD/USD.

1. Spring Budget: Tuesday, March 13^th

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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2317 and closed at 1.2307 – depreciating by 0.08% after the bombshell election that occurred in Italy.

Following the Italian elections, there have been concerns about the country’s debt pile and its hostility toward monetary union. French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told reports in Brussels, “I think the difficulties will lead us to move forward even faster and concretely in integrating the euro area. It’s absolutely urgent for us to make progress.”

The European Commission warned Italy last week to work towards reducing the pile of government debt, which is the second highest in the European Monetary Union after Greece. Italy is in an “excessive economic imbalance,” and the strong electoral antiestablishment parties may increase concerns of the imbalances in the next coming months.

1. Eurogroup Meeting: Monday, March 12^th

2. Manufacturing Production: Monday, March 12^th

3. Inflation Rate (MoM): Tuesday, March 13^th

4. Unemployment Rate: Thursday, March 15^th

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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

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