Currency Market Trend Analysis: June 19, 2017
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By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review
Currency Calendar
Date | Releases / Holiday | Country |
---|---|---|
June 19, 2017 | Buba President Weidmann Speech | Germany |
June 19, 2017 | Start of Brexit Negotiations | UK |
June 20, 2017 | Fed’s Stanley Fischer Speech | USA |
June 20, 2017 | Wholesale Sales Report (Apr) | Canada |
June 20, 2017 | BOE’s Governor Carney Speech | UK |
June 21, 2017 | Public Sector Net Borrowing Report | UK |
June 22, 2017 | Housing Price Index (Apr) | USA |
June 23, 2017 | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | USA |
June 23, 2017 | Markit Services PMI (Jun) | USA |
June 23, 2017 | New Home Sales (May) | USA |
June 23, 2017 | CPI (May) | Canada |
Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.
Market Analysis
CAD - Canadian Dollar
The CAD opened last week at 0.7426 and closed at 0.7555.
The CAD rallied against the USD this past week, appreciating 1.75% and recovering much of the ground lost over the past 2 months. This appreciation is in-part due to a shift to tightening bias by the BoC. Recent Canadian economic reports have been positive, and housing price growth has accelerated.
Expect the CAD to appreciate further against the USD this week, though likely at a more tempered pace than last week.
1. Wholesale Sales (Apr): Tuesday June 20.
2. CPI (May): Friday June 23.
GBP - British Pound
The GBP opened last week at 1.2743 and closed at 1.2776.
Last week the GBP appreciated 0.25% against the USD. The biggest upset occurred Thursday, following Tuesday’s higher-than-expected CPI inflation report; the Governor of the BoE announced that it is not time to hike interest rates, citing subdued inflationary pressure. Brexit negotiations began Monday, June 19th. Chancellor Hammond has stated that the financial services industry is the highest priority in the negotiations.
Last Thursdays’ 5-3 vote on the interest rates hike indicates a split within the BoE – there will be a heightened focus Carney’s speech on Tuesday. Expect heightened volatility this week, and possible devaluation.
1. Start of Brexit Negotiations: Monday June 19.
2. BOE's Governor Carney Speech: Tuesday June 20.
3. Public Sector Net Borrowing (May): Wednesday June 21.
4. MPC Member Haldane Speech: Wednesday June 21.
EUR - Euro
The Euro opened last week at 1.1195 and closed at 1.1191.
Over the past week, the Euro has depreciated 0.04% against the USD, remaining relatively unchanged. The German IFO institute raised their GDP growth forecasts up – from 1.5% to 1.8% for 2017, and from 1.8% to 2.0% for 2018.
There are a variety of economic reports coming out this week for the European Monetary Union (EMU), culminating with the release of the PMI for the service and manufacturing sectors. Expect a possible devaluation as Brexit negotiations begin.
1. Buba President Weidmann Speech (Germany): Monday June 19.
2. ECB's Non-monetary Policy Meeting: Wednesday, June 21.
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