Currency Market Trend Analysis: March 27, 2017

Ryan March 28th, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Country
March 27, 2017	Bank of Canada Poloz Speech	Canada
March 28, 2017	Fed Chair Yellen Speech	USA
March 29, 2017	PM May Triggers Article 50, Starting Brexit Process	England
March 30, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q)	USA
March 31, 2017	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) ( MAR)	Europe
March 31, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JAN)	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar opened last week at 1.3358 and closed at 1.3377 to remain relatively unchanged as this pair continues to trade in the 1.30 to 1.35 medium term range.

Last week’s major news highlight was the failure to pass the US Healthcare bill which could negatively impact markets as the uncertainty of future tax reform and infrastructure spending bills come into play.

For this week, we have Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’ speech on Tuesday along with GDP data from both Canada and the US which leaves the door open for potential volatility.

1. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech: Tuesday March 28.

2. Raw Materials Price Index: Thursday March 30.

3. GDP: Friday March 31.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP opened last week at 1.2368 and closed at 1.2489 to move higher for a second straight week.

The GB pound strength was a combination of strong economic UK CPI and Retail Sales data which beat their estimates, while US Unemployment Claims were unexpectedly weak, soaring to 261 thousand.

This week could prove to be somewhat volatile as we have GDP data coming from the US while on the UK side, we have the unknown risks of Article 50 invocation on the 29^th along with Current Account and Final GDP data on the 31^st.

1. Net Lending to Individuals: Wednesday March 29.

2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday March 30.

3. Nationwide HPI: Friday March 31.

4. Current Account: Friday March 31.

5. Final GDP: Friday March 31.

EUR - Euro

The Euro opened last week at 1.0755 and closed at 1.0803 to end in positive territory. After trading in the 1.05 – 1.08 range for the last while now, expect this pair to make a strong push towards the 1.10 mark.

Political stability seems to be returning as the odds and fears for a Le Pen win in France head lower as mainstream candidate Macron rises in the latest polls.

This week should be relatively quiet as we have US GDP data and the German Ifo Business climate as we close in on month end.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday March 27.

2. Monetary data: Monday March 27.

3. German Import Prices: Wednesday March 29.

4. German CPI: Thursday March 30.

5. Spanish Flash CPI: Thursday March 30.

6. German Retail Sales: Friday March 31.

7. French CPI: Friday March 31.

8. French Consumer Spending: Friday March 31.

9. German Unemployment Change: Friday March 31.

10. Flash inflation data: Friday March 31.

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