Currency Market Trend Analysis: February 20, 2017

Ryan February 20th, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Country
February 20, 2017	Banks Closed - President's Day	USA
February 21, 2017	BoE Carney Speaks in UK Parliament	England
February 22, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)	England
February 22, 2017	Eurozone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)	Europe
February 22, 2017	FOMC Meeting Minutes (Feb. 01)	USA
February 24, 2017	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Last week the Canadian dollar closed relatively unchanged at 1.3090 as the first meeting with Trudeau and Trump was a non-event as each stood their ground to earn mutual respect.

Strong economic data from Canada so far this year has help the CAD hold its own against general USD strength so expect this pair to continue trading in the 1.29 – 1.31 range in the near term.

Looking ahead to this week, the FOMC meeting minutes from the US and Retail Sales and CPI data from Canada could cause some volatility so stay alert.

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday February 20.

2. Core Retail Sales: Wednesday February 22.

3. Retail Sales: Wednesday February 22.

4. Corporate Profits: Thursday February 23.

5. Consumer Price Index: Friday February 24.

6. Trimmed Core CPI: Friday February 24.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP closed last week just above the 1.242 mark which was a small loss from the previous week’s close.

Neutral and balanced data releases from the UK helped the pound to balance out general USD strength over the past couple of weeks which has kept this pair trading in a tight range.

The near term must watch event is the UK Parliament’s debate of Article 50, which basically means there’s no turning back from Brexit once invoked.

1. Rightmove House Price Index: Monday February 20.

2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday February 20.

3. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday February 21.

4. Second Estimate GDP: Wednesday February 22.

5. Preliminary Business Investment: Wednesday February 22.

6. 10-year Bond Auction: Thursday February 23.

7. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales: Thursday February 23.

8. British Bankers Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals: Friday February 24.

EUR - Euro

The EUR closed slightly down last week at 1.0615 and continues to consolidate around the 1.07 resistance mark.

Just as last week, politics in Europe continues to be a major cause for concern, couple this with a potential Fed interest rate hike in March, and the Euro could see a significant move to the downside.

For the week ahead, German PPI and GDP data along with the FOMC meeting minutes from the US are the key events to keep an eye on.

1. German Producer Price Index: Monday February 20.

2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday February 20.

3. Consumer Confidence: Monday February 20.

4. Purchasing Managers Index: Tuesday February 21.

5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday February 22.

6. Consumer Price Index (final): Wednesday February 22.

7. Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO): Wednesday February 22.

8. National Bank of Belgium Business Climate: Wednesday February 22.

9. German Gross Domestic Product (final): Thursday February 23.

10. GfK German Consumer Climate: Thursday February 23.

FX Market Pro

Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations, and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 80 foreign currencies, gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler’s cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI’s innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a â€œcall to actionâ€? or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.