Currency Market Trend Analysis: March 20, 2017

Ryan March 21st, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Country
March 21, 2017	Consumer Price Index	England
March 24, 2017	Consumer Price Index	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar opened last week at 1.3450 and closed at 1.3369 after posting impressive gains. After pushing the 1.35 mark, the pair fell back into the broader long term range of 1.30 – 1.35 with 1.30 on the horizon if Canada continues generating positive economic data.

Last week’s highlight was of course the Fed’s rate hike which was anticipated and priced into the markets. The general US dollar weakness that followed was primarily due to FOMC statements stating “the timing of the next rate hike will be tied to incoming economic data”.

This week we have the CPI and Retail Sales data from Canada to keep an eye on with not much news coming out of the US.

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday March 20.

2. Core Retail Sales: Tuesday March 21.

3. Retail Sales: Tuesday March 21.

4. Annual Budget Release: Wednesday March 22.

5. CPI: Friday March 24.

6. Common CPI: Friday March 24.

7. Median CPI: Friday March 24.

GBP - British Pound

The British pound opened last week at 1.2234 and closed at 1.2369 after posting sharp gains. The rise is mostly attributed to general US dollar weakness after last week’s highly anticipated Fed rate hike and dovish FOMC statements.

Expect the pound to experience downward pressure and some volatility over the short to medium term as PM May announced March 29 as the date Article 50 of the Brexit process will be officially invoked.

This week will be quiet on the economic data front on both sides of the pond as the only event of note is retail sales coming from the UK.

1. Rightmove HPI: Monday March 20.

2. CPI: Tuesday March 21.

3. PPI Input: Tuesday Mach 21.

4. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday March 21.

5. RPI Input: Tuesday March 21.

6. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Tuesday March 21.

7. 30-y Bond Auction: Wednesday March 22.

8. Retail Sales: Thursday March 23.

9. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday March 23.

10. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Friday March 24.

EUR - Euro

The Euro opened last week at 1.0669 and closed at 1.0739 after posting positive gains. This performance is a continuation of the range between 1.05 and 1.08 so expect the price to hold around the 1.08 mark in the short term.

The “pro-Europe election” results from the Netherlands vote last week helped to bolster confidence in the Euro which could be tempered with upcoming elections in France on the horizon.

This week will be quiet on the economic data front as we do not have any major news coming from the Eurozone or the US.

1. German PPI: Monday March 20.

2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday March 20.

3. Jens Weidmann talks: Monday March 20.

4. Current Account: Wednesday March 22.

5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday March 23.

6. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday March 23.

7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday March 23.

8. Consumer Confidence: Thursday March 23.

9. Flash PMIs: Friday March 24.

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