Currency Market Trend Analysis: February 13, 2017

Ryan February 15th, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Country
February 14, 2017	German Gross Domestic Product	Europe
February 14, 2017	Italian Gross Domestic Product	Europe
February 14, 2017	Consumer Price Index	England
February 14, 2017	Fed Chair Yellen appears before Senate Banking Panel	USA
February 15, 2017	Consumer Price Index	USA
February 16 & 17, 2017	G20 Finance Ministers Meeting	Europe

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

After two straight weeks of gains, the Canadian dollar took a breather last week to close slightly down at 1.3076.

For the week ahead, we expect to see some general weakness in the CAD as oil prices continue to trend downward coupled with upward US dollar strength from Trump’s indication that a “phenomenal tax plan” is in the works for both corporations and individuals.

The markets will also be keeping a close eye on what is discussed (or tweeted) when PM Trudeau and President Trump meet on Monday followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional Testimony on the economic and monetary policy outlook on Tuesday.

1. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday February 15.

2. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday February 17.

GBP - British Pound

Last week, the British pound opened at 1.2482, reached a high of 1.2582 and a low of 1.2342 before closing out the week relatively unchanged at 1.2475.

The US dollar has been negatively impacted over the past few weeks by major policy announcements and rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. However, USD strength is gaining momentum as major tax cuts are on the horizon and key administration nominees continue to be approved.

The key factors to look for this week are CPI, Claimant Count Change and retail sales data from the UK along with PPI and retail sales data from the US, which could give a hint on when the next Fed hike would take place.

1. CPI: Tuesday February 14.

2. PPI Input: Tuesday February 14.

3. RPI Input: Tuesday February 14.

4. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday February 15.

5. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday February 15.

6. CB Leading Index: Wednesday February 15.

7. Retail Sales: Friday February 17.

EUR - Euro

Last week the Euro reached a high of 1.0802 and a low of 1.0608 before finally closing out at 1.0643.

Rising political uncertainty and risk in Europe is back in the spotlight again as early election polling in France and the Netherlands shows “traditional” parties in trouble. The ‘can of Greek debt that was kicked down the road’ earlier is also on the horizon and will need to be dealt with in the short term.

For this week’s economic calendar, German Preliminary GDP data is the one to watch coming out of Europe while the US will be reporting on PPI and retail sales data. For US dollar strength and momentum to build, market focus will need to shift away from Trump to potential Fed rate hikes and their timing.

1. German WPI: Monday February 13.

2. German GDP: Tuesday February 14.

3. German CPI (final): Tuesday February 14.

4. Italian GDP: Tuesday February 14.

5. Flash GDP: Tuesday February 14.

6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday February 14.

7. Industrial Production: Tuesday February 14.

8. Trade Balance: Wednesday February 15.

9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday February 16.

10. Current Account: Friday February 17.

FX Market Pro

Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passport’s, traveler’s cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler’s cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI’s innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a â€œcall to actionâ€? or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.